Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Identifieur interne : 000373 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000372; suivant : 000374Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Auteurs : Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qianyin Lin [États-Unis] ; Jinjun Ran [République populaire de Chine] ; Salihu S. Musa [République populaire de Chine] ; Guangpu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou [République populaire de Chine] ; Daozhou Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine] ; Maggie H. Wang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (physiologie), Humains, Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Nombre de reproduction de base, Organisation mondiale de la santé, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Virus du SRAS (physiologie), Épidémies.
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- physiologie : Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Virus du SRAS.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Humains, Nombre de reproduction de base, Organisation mondiale de la santé, Pandémies, Épidémies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus (physiology), China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Epidemics, Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology), Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), SARS Virus (physiology), World Health Organization.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- physiology : Betacoronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, SARS Virus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Epidemics, Humans, Pandemics, World Health Organization.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06. We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method. We estimated that the mean Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
PubMed: 32007643
PubMed Central: 7110798
Affiliations:
- République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Guangdong, Michigan
- Sha Tin, Shenzhen
- Université chinoise de Hong Kong
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Le document en format XML
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Zhao</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Michigan</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huaian</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International 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Moyen-Orient (physiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term><term>Organisation mondiale de la santé</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Virus du SRAS (physiologie)</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnostic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>World Health Organization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term><term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term><term>Organisation mondiale de la santé</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">We estimated that the mean <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A. Assiri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A. McGeer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perl, T M" uniqKey="Perl T">T.M. Perl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Price, C S" uniqKey="Price C">C.S. Price</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, A A" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">A.A. Al Rabeeah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, D A" uniqKey="Cummings D">D.A. Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Alabdullatif, Z N" uniqKey="Alabdullatif Z">Z.N. Alabdullatif</name></author><author><name sortKey="Assad, M" uniqKey="Assad M">M. Assad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Almulhim, A" uniqKey="Almulhim A">A. Almulhim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Makhdoom, H" uniqKey="Makhdoom H">H. Makhdoom</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, C T" uniqKey="Bauch C">C.T. Bauch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, J O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">J.O. 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Tsang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China" uniqKey="Wuhan Municipal Health Commission China">Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, S S" uniqKey="Musa S">S.S. Musa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, H" uniqKey="Fu H">H. Fu</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Qin, J" uniqKey="Qin J">J. Qin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Guangdong</li><li>Michigan</li></region><settlement><li>Sha Tin</li><li>Shenzhen</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université chinoise de Hong Kong</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Michigan"><name sortKey="Lin, Qianyin" sort="Lin, Qianyin" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianyin" last="Lin">Qianyin Lin</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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